Nov 23, 2015

Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving…shopping, football and recovering from too much food…and most important, to retailers and online merchants, the day that signified the beginning of the most profitable period on the retail selling calendar.

Originally “Black Friday” was in industry term coined to signify the beginning of the busiest and most profitable period of the year; the time of year that would make retailers smile or cry, the time of year that could determine whether or not they made their profit and sales goals for the year.   In many cases, it was also the most profitable selling day of the year, because it was the day when prices and margins were their highest.  Black Friday meant being in the “black,” making money as opposed to being in the “red” losing money.

That was then.  Now, for consumers, Black Friday is a call to action for them to take advantage of large discounts and super promotions…find that ultimate deal.  It means lining up outside stores before the sun rises to be the first in line when the store opens to take advantage of the limited quantity promotions and “door busters” designed to drive heavy retail traffic.  For those consumers lucky enough to be the early shoppers, it can mean really big savings.

It didn’t used to be that way, but consumers have been trained by retailers to shop on sale, always at a discount, and Black Friday has become the biggest discounting day of the year and the beginning of the season of discounting.  There are whole generations of Americans who have never known anything but after Thanksgiving discounting.

The biggest Black Friday trend is that it is no longer just Friday; Black Friday for many merchants starts Thanksgiving Day and even the week before when retailers start peppering consumers with promotional emails and traditional media shouting out the huge savings to come on a wide range of merchandise starting Thanksgiving Day.  My mailboxes started being deluged with Black Friday email and printed offers last week, in fact it seems like every marketer is sending them earlier and earlier each year to beat their competitors.  Most of these offers start on Thanksgiving Day, but it’s surprising how many of them actually start the day you receive the promotion, with messages like “Don’t wait for Black Friday; start spending and saving today.”

According to NRF, the three factors influencing the evolution of Black Friday shopping are…

1. Merchants are providing holiday discounts much earlier…this year more and bigger discounts.
2. The economy is improving creating more jobs and raising consumer confidence.
3. Consumers are smarter and more sophisticated…meaning they know how to shop to their advantage.

The Black Friday appendage “Cyber Monday,” the day when online merchants follow the discounting and special promotion practices of their retail compatriots is seeing the same sort of promotional creep.   Many online marketers aren’t going to miss the opportunity to also pitch their offers for Black Friday, repeating the offer on Cyber Monday or offering some new promotion.  Both Black Friday and Cyber Monday remain important in terms of total sales for the holiday period.

“Cyber Monday is still a big deal, contributing significantly to an expected $105 billion in online holiday sales. This year, more than 900 retailers are offering deals on CyberMonday.com all season long. And if your email inbox is anything like mine, you’ve already seen retailers promoting early sales and deals; holiday shoppers are already heading online to browse and buy. “

From a consumer perspective this coming Black Friday and Cyber Monday may represent will represent the opportunity for additional savings on merchandise that typically hasn’t seen heavy discounting this time of year.  This has been one of the warmest falls on record and the normal demand for seasonal merchandise, especially apparel, has been hurt by the warm weather.  So, these categories may see heavier discounting than in recent years.    Also, the sales of big ticket and electronics have been down this fall, so the consumer can expect deep discounting and specials in these categories.

Merchants still expect to make gains over the Black Friday – Cyber Monday weekend; but, consumers expect the deals, promotions and sales to last right through the holidays, so there may not be the urgency to get out and shop.  In fact, some merchants are suggesting that consumers do their shopping earlier or wait until after the rush and avoid the weekend hassle.  How big or important the Black Friday – Cyber Monday weekend is depends to a large degree on what merchants offer the consumer in terms of pricing and special merchandise.

Another trend is that with the spread of digital devices and digital channels, omni-channel merchants are combining online and off line promotional activities to drive business before, during and after Black Friday.  And, many are offering before, day of, and day after promotions and a combination of online only, retail only, online but pick up in the store.   Some of these promotions will no doubt run until Christmas.

According to the National Retail Foundation…

“The National Retail Federation announced today it expects sales in November and December (excluding autos, gas and restaurant sales) to increase a solid 3.7 percent to $630.5 billion — significantly higher than the 10-year average of 2.5 percent. Holiday sales in 2015 are expected to represent approximately 19 percent of the retail industry’s annual sales of $3.2 trillion. Additionally, NRF is forecasting online sales to increase between 6 and 8 percent to as much as $105 billion.” 

What all this means is more deals for consumers everywhere, at any time, whether they’re buying gifts or buying for themselves on or off online.